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As increasing numbers of people worldwide live with one or more health problems, the study of prognosis has never been more important. Prognosis research provides information crucial to understanding, explaining and predicting future clinical outcomes in people with existing disease or health conditions. It provides pivotal evidence to inform outcome prediction, clinical decision making, design and evaluation of stratified medicine (stratified care), and all stages of translational research from molecular biology to health policy.

This 3-day summer school is designed to introduce the key components and uses of prognosis research to health professionals and researchers, including:

  • a framework of four different prognosis research questions: overall prognosis, prognostic factors, prognostic models, and stratified medicine
  • key principles of study design and methods
  • interpretation of statistical results about prognosis
  • the use of prognosis research evidence at multiple stages on the translational pathway toward improving patient outcome 
  • the limitations of current prognosis research, and how the field can be improved

The course consists of lectures from a core faculty of epidemiologists, statisticians and clinical researchers, alongside group work and discussion sessions. Please note that no computer practicals are included with the focus instead on interpretation of statistical concepts and results of analyses. Basic knowledge of epidemiology and statistics is assumed. The course is founded on the prognosis research framework introduced by the PROGRESS partnership, described in a series of 4 articles published in BMJ/PLoS Medicine in February 2013. The PROGnosis RESearch Strategy partnership is a collaboration led by Keele University (Richard Riley, Peter Croft, Daniëlle van der Windt), UCL (Harry Hemingway, Aroon Hingorani), London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (Pablo Perel, Ian Roberts), Bart’s Heart Centre (Adam Timmis) and the University of Oxford (Douglas Altman).

The course is hosted by the Keele Centre for Prognosis Research and will take place on the rural campus of Keele University. The course fee will be £795 when registering on or before 31st March 2018 (including meals and 2 nights’ accommodation), and £895 from 1st April 2018.

To book a place on the course or for further information please contact Sue Weir: or visit the website: