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Understanding the management of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: a qualitative multiperspective study
Background About half of all people with heart failure have heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), in which the heart is stiff. This type of heart failure is more common in older people with a history of hypertension, obesity, and diabetes mellitus. Patients with HFpEF are often managed in primary care, sometimes in collaboration with specialists. Knowledge about how best to manage this growing population is limited, and there is a pressing need to improve care for these patients. Aim To explore clinicians’ and patients’/carers’ perspectives and experiences about the management of HFpEF to inform the development of an improved model of care. Design and setting: A multiperspective qualitative study involving primary and secondary care settings across the east of England, Greater Manchester, and the West Midlands. Method: Semi-structured interviews and focus groups were conducted. Transcribed data were analysed using framework analysis and informed by the normalisation process theory (NPT). Results: In total, 50 patients, nine carers/relatives, and 73 clinicians were recruited. Difficulties with diagnosis, unclear illness perceptions, and management disparity were identified as important factors that may influence management of HFpEF. The NPT construct of coherence reflected what participants expressed about the need to improve the identification, understanding, and awareness of this condition in order to improve care. Conclusion: There is a pressing need to raise the public and clinical profile of HFpEF, develop a clear set of accepted practices concerning its management, and ensure that systems of care are accessible and attuned to the needs of patients with this condition.
Use of hormone replacement therapy and risk of breast cancer: nested case-control studies using the QResearch and CPRD databases
Objective: To assess the risks of breast cancer associated with different types and durations of hormone replacement therapy (HRT). Design: Two nested case-control studies. Setting: UK general practices contributing to QResearch or Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), linked to hospital, mortality, social deprivation, and cancer registry (QResearch only) data. Participants: 98 611 women aged 50-79 with a primary diagnosis of breast cancer between 1998 and 2018, matched by age, general practice, and index date to 457 498 female controls. Main outcome measures: Breast cancer diagnosis from general practice, mortality, hospital, or cancer registry records. Odds ratios for HRT types, adjusted for personal characteristics, smoking status, alcohol consumption, comorbidities, family history, and other prescribed drugs. Separate results from QResearch or CPRD were combined. Results: Overall, 33 703 (34%) women with a diagnosis of breast cancer and 134 391 (31%) controls had used HRT prior to one year before the index date. Compared with never use, in recent users (<5 years) with long term use (≥5 years), oestrogen only therapy and combined oestrogen and progestogen therapy were both associated with increased risks of breast cancer (adjusted odds ratio 1.15 (95% confidence interval 1.09 to 1.21) and 1.79 (1.73 to 1.85), respectively). For combined progestogens, the increased risk was highest for norethisterone (1.88, 1.79 to 1.99) and lowest for dydrogesterone (1.24, 1.03 to 1.48). Past long term use of oestrogen only therapy and past short term (<5 years) use of oestrogen-progestogen were not associated with increased risk. The risk associated with past long term oestrogen-progestogen use, however, remained increased (1.16, 1.11 to 1.21). In recent oestrogen only users, between three (in younger women) and eight (in older women) extra cases per 10 000 women years would be expected, and in oestrogen-progestogen users between nine and 36 extra cases per 10 000 women years. For past oestrogen-progestogen users, the results would suggest between two and eight extra cases per 10 000 women years. Conclusion: This study has produced new generalisable estimates of the increased risks of breast cancer associated with use of different hormone replacement preparations in the UK. The levels of risks varied between types of HRT, with higher risks for combined treatments and for longer duration of use.
Performance and clinical utility of supervised machine-learning approaches in detecting familial hypercholesterolaemia in primary care
Familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH) is a common inherited disorder, causing lifelong elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). Most individuals with FH remain undiagnosed, precluding opportunities to prevent premature heart disease and death. Some machine-learning approaches improve detection of FH in electronic health records, though clinical impact is under-explored. We assessed performance of an array of machine-learning approaches for enhancing detection of FH, and their clinical utility, within a large primary care population. A retrospective cohort study was done using routine primary care clinical records of 4,027,775 individuals from the United Kingdom with total cholesterol measured from 1 January 1999 to 25 June 2019. Predictive accuracy of five common machine-learning algorithms (logistic regression, random forest, gradient boosting machines, neural networks and ensemble learning) were assessed for detecting FH. Predictive accuracy was assessed by area under the receiver operating curves (AUC) and expected vs observed calibration slope; with clinical utility assessed by expected case-review workload and likelihood ratios. There were 7928 incident diagnoses of FH. In addition to known clinical features of FH (raised total cholesterol or LDL-C and family history of premature coronary heart disease), machine-learning (ML) algorithms identified features such as raised triglycerides which reduced the likelihood of FH. Apart from logistic regression (AUC, 0.81), all four other ML approaches had similarly high predictive accuracy (AUC > 0.89). Calibration slope ranged from 0.997 for gradient boosting machines to 1.857 for logistic regression. Among those screened, high probability cases requiring clinical review varied from 0.73% using ensemble learning to 10.16% using deep learning, but with positive predictive values of 15.5% and 2.8% respectively. Ensemble learning exhibited a dominant positive likelihood ratio (45.5) compared to all other ML models (7.0–14.4). Machine-learning models show similar high accuracy in detecting FH, offering opportunities to increase diagnosis. However, the clinical case-finding workload required for yield of cases will differ substantially between models.
Managing older people’s perceptions of alcohol-related risk: a qualitative exploration in Northern English primary care
Background: Risk of harm from drinking increases with age as alcohol affects health conditions and medications that are common in later life. Different types of information and experiences affect older people’s perceptions of alcohol’s effects, which must be navigated when supporting healthier decisions on alcohol consumption. Aim: To explore how older people understand the effects of alcohol on their health; and how these perspectives are navigated in supportive discussions in primary care to promote healthier alcohol use. Design and setting: A qualitative study consisting of semi-structured interviews and focus groups with older, non-dependent drinkers and primary care practitioners in Northern England. Method: A total of 24 older adults aged ≥65 years and 35 primary care practitioners participated in interviews and focus groups. Data were analysed thematically, applying principles of constant comparison. Results: Older adults were motivated to make changes to their alcohol use when they experienced symptoms, and if they felt that limiting consumption would enable them to maintain their quality of life. The results of alcohol-related screening were useful in providing insights into potential effects for individuals. Primary care practitioners motivated older people to make healthier decisions by highlighting individual risks of drinking, and potential gains of limiting intake. Conclusion: Later life is a time when older people may be open to making changes to their alcohol use, particularly when suggested by practitioners. Older people can struggle to recognise potential risks or perceive little gain in acting on perceived risks. Such perceptions may be challenging to navigate in supportive discussions.
Cross-sectional questionnaire study to gather the teaching preferences and expectations of UK undergraduate medical students for culinary medicine learning
Aim :To determine undergraduate medical students’ teaching preferences and expectations for Culinary Medicine (CM) learning with a view to informing development of a CM course at a UK medical school. Setting: A single, urban UK medical school. Participants: 180 undergraduate medical students. Study design: A cross-sectional questionnaire study collecting quantitative and qualitative (free-text) data. Methods and outcome measures: An online questionnaire consisting of 16 questions of various styles (Likert-type, multiple choice and free-text). Quantitative analysis of multiple choice and Likert-type scale questions was conducted. Qualitative thematic analysis was used to analyse the free-text responses and identify themes. Results: Three core themes related to students’ understanding of CM were identified: (1) ‘CM Learning’: students’ perceived relevance of CM knowledge, perceived relevance of CM to healthcare and their expectations for teaching; (2) ‘The Relationship between Food and Health’: links between diet, social factors and health; and (3) ‘Evidence-based Medicine’: students’ perceptions about scientific principles underlying CM. Quantitative analysis revealed that, although 83% of students felt that learning CM is important for their future clinical practice, 56% felt unable to take a dietary history. 73% of students were dissatisfied with the quality, and 78% were dissatisfied with the quantity, of existing medical school teaching understood to be relevant to CM. Topics that students would like to be taught on a CM course included weight management and portion control. Students felt that problem-based style learning would be the most appropriate method for delivering CM teaching. Conclusions: This study revealed that medical students felt their dietary counsulting skills could be improved with further clinically relevant teaching in the undergraduate medical curriculum. Students’ preferences for CM learning have been taken into consideration in the development of a CM course for fifth-year undergraduate students at a UK medical school, which is delivered during their General Practice placement.
Lost in reviews: Looking for the involvement of stakeholders, patients, public and other non‐researcher contributors in realist reviews
The involvement of non‐researcher contributors (eg, stakeholders, patients and the public, decision and policy makers, experts, lay contributors) has taken a variety of forms within evidence syntheses. Realist reviews are a form of evidence synthesis that involves non‐researcher contributors yet this practice has received little attention. In particular, the role of patient and public involvement (PPI) has not been clearly documented. This review of reviews describes the ways in which contributor involvement, including PPI, is documented within healthcare realist reviews published over the last five years. A total of 448 papers published between 2014 and 2019 were screened, yielding 71 full‐text papers included in this review. Statements about contributor involvement were synthesized across each review using framework analysis. Three themes are described in this article including nomenclature, nature of involvement, and reporting impact. Papers indicate that contributor involvement in realist reviews refers to stakeholders, experts, or advisory groups (ie, professionals, clinicians, or academics). Patients and the public are occasionally subsumed into these groups and in doing so, the nature and impact of their involvement become challenging to identify and at times, is lost completely. Our review findings indicate a need for the realist review community to develop guidance to support researchers in their future collaboration with contributors, including patients and the public. Highlights: Evidence synthesis methods often involve a number of different non‐researcher contributors throughout the research project lifecycle. There are varied and multiple ways of involving contributors. Realist review approaches do not always make contributor involvement explicit, in particular patient and public involvement. This review synthesizes the ways in which contributors have been involved in realist reviews, including patients and the public. Based on our study findings, we emphasize a clear need to identify who contributors are, when they are involved and how, so that their impact is not lost in future realist reviews. For readers both inside and outside of the realist research community, we encourage reflection, collaboration, and development of further guidelines that help to recognize contributor involvement in a number of different forms and structures.
New models of care in general practice for the youth mental health transition boundary
Mental illness represents the highest proportion of disease burden for children and young people in the UK.1 However, despite this, young people can struggle to access timely and appropriate mental health care. One particular barrier to continuity of care occurs when young people reach the upper age limit (usually 18 years) of child and adolescent mental health services (CAMHS). If they require ongoing specialist support, their care should be transferred to an adult mental health service (AMHS), through a purposeful and planned transfer of care known as ‘transition’. However, only around a quarter of young people transition to AMHS,2 and in the absence of specialist adult mental health care, GPs often become involved in the young person’s care ‘by default’.3 Although GPs become responsible for the young person’s care after they leave CAMHS, they may not have the necessary skills and resources to manage complex mental health difficulties in young people.
Involving people with experience of dementia in analysis of video recorded doctor-patient-carer interactions in care homes
The impact of public participants in data analysis has been reported, but there is little research on public involvement of analysis of naturally occurring interactional data. Four video recordings of clinicians from out of hours primary care services visiting care home residents with dementia were analysed in data sessions involving 12 people with dementia, seven carers, and two Alzheimer’s Society group facilitators. Participants were able to apply conversation analysis practices in their observations of the data, grounding their comments in the transcripts and video recordings. They also provided contextual insights, comments on how to improve communication, and application to their own personal experience. The data sessions allowed reflection on what public involvement can add to interaction analysis, how to enable people with dementia to have a voice in research, and how best to balance the power between researchers and public contributors.
Impact of Changes to National Hypertension Guidelines on Hypertension Management and Outcomes in the United Kingdom
In recent years, national and international guidelines have recommended the use of out-of-office blood pressure monitoring for diagnosing hypertension. Despite evidence of cost-effectiveness, critics expressed concerns this would increase cardiovascular morbidity. We assessed the impact of these changes on the incidence of hypertension, out-of-office monitoring and cardiovascular morbidity using routine clinical data from English general practices, linked to inpatient hospital, mortality, and socio-economic status data. We studied 3 937 191 adults with median follow-up of 4.2 years (49% men, mean age=39.7 years) between April 1, 2006 and March 31, 2017. Interrupted time series analysis was used to examine the impact of changes to English hypertension guidelines in 2011 on incidence of hypertension (primary outcome). Secondary outcomes included rate of out-of-office monitoring and cardiovascular events. Across the study period, incidence of hypertension fell from 2.1 to 1.4 per 100 person-years. The change in guidance in 2011 was not associated with an immediate change in incidence (change in rate=0.01 [95% CI, −0.18–0.20]) but did result in a leveling out of the downward trend (change in yearly trend =0.09 [95% CI, 0.04–0.15]). Ambulatory monitoring increased significantly in 2011/2012 (change in rate =0.52 [95% CI, 0.43–0.60]). The rate of cardiovascular events remained unchanged (change in rate =−0.02 [95% CI, −0.05–0.02]). In summary, changes to hypertension guidelines in 2011 were associated with a stabilisation in incidence and no increase in cardiovascular events. Guidelines should continue to recommend out-of-office monitoring for diagnosis of hypertension.
Vitamin D deficiency is associated with orthostatic hypotension in older men: a cross-sectional analysis from the British Regional Heart Study
Background: orthostatic hypotension (OH) that occurs within, or at, 1 minute of standing is associated with higher risk of falls, myocardial infarction, syncope and mortality, compared to OH that occurs after 1 minute of standing. Whether vitamin D deficiency increases the risk of OH is controversial. Methods: this was a cross-sectional analysis of 3,620 older, community-dwelling men. Multinomial, multiple logistic regression models were used to calculate the risk of OH across categories of vitamin D status (deficient [<25 nmol/l], insufficient [≥25–<50 nmol/l] and sufficient [≥50 nmol/l]) and parathyroid hormone quintile. Results: men with vitamin D deficiency were more likely to have OH that occurred within 1 minute of standing in univariate logistic regression (OR 1.88, 95% CI 1.40–2.53) and multinomial, multiple logistic regression (OR 1.51, 95% CI 1.06–2.15), compared to men with sufficient levels of vitamin D. Vitamin D insufficiency was not associated with the risk of OH. Elevated parathyroid hormone was not associated with risk of OH. Conclusion: the absence of an association between vitamin D insufficiency and risk of OH and the presence of an association between vitamin D deficiency and risk of OH suggest that there may be a threshold effect; it is only below a particular level of vitamin D that risk of OH is increased. In this cohort, the threshold was <25 nmol/l. Future work should investigate whether treating vitamin D deficiency can improve postural blood pressure or if preventing vitamin D deficiency reduces the incidence of OH.
Primary care experience and remission of Type 2 diabetes: a population-based prospective cohort study
Background: Remission of Type 2 diabetes is achievable through dietary change and weight loss. In the UK, lifestyle advice and referrals to weight loss programmes predominantly occur in primary care where most Type 2 diabetes is managed. Objective: To quantify the association between primary care experience and remission of Type 2 diabetes over 5-year follow-up. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adults with Type 2 diabetes registered to 49 general practices in the East of England, UK. Participants were followed-up for 5 years and completed the Consultation and Relational Empathy measure (CARE) on diabetes-specific primary care experiences over the first year after diagnosis of the disease. Remission at 5-year follow-up was measured with HbA1c levels. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were constructed to quantify the association between primary care experience and remission of diabetes. Results: Of 867 participants, 30% (257) achieved remission of Type 2 diabetes at 5 years. Six hundred twenty-eight had complete data at follow-up and were included in the analysis. Participants who reported higher CARE scores in the 12 months following diagnosis were more likely to achieve remission at 5 years in multivariable models; odds ratio = 1.03 (95% confidence interval = 1.01–1.05, P = 0.01). Conclusion: Primary care practitioners should pay greater attention to delivering optimal patient experiences alongside clinical management of the disease as this may contribute towards remission of Type 2 diabetes. Further work is needed to examine which aspects of the primary care experience might be optimized and how these could be operationalized.
Effectiveness of Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT) interventions for promoting physical activity: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Physical inactivity is a key risk factor for non-communicable diseases, and there is a need for interventions to increase the adoption and maintenance of regular physical activity. Interventions based on Acceptance and Commitment (ACT) have shown promise for promoting a range of health behaviours, including physical activity. The aims of this review were to (1) determine the effectiveness of ACT interventions for physical activity; and (2) identify the ACT processes, behaviour change techniques (BCTs) and intervention characteristics associated with ACT interventions. Eight electronic databases were searched for ACT interventions that aimed to increase physical activity. Seven eligible studies were included in the systematic review, and ACT processes, Behaviour Change Techniques and other intervention components and characteristics of the included interventions were coded. Six studies were randomised controlled trials that were included in a random-effects meta-analysis, which indicated small-to-moderate effects on physical activity (SMD = 0.32, 95% CI (0.07, 0.57), p = 0.01). ACT interventions show promise for increasing physical activity, but very few of the ‘active ingredients’ of ACT interventions could be characterised as BCTs. Future development of ACT interventions for physical activity should attempt to describe and name the ACT processes targeted by the intervention, and the BCTs used to target those processes
Does cranberry extract reduce antibiotic use for symptoms of acute uncomplicated urinary tract infections (CUTI)? Protocol for a feasibility study
Background: Consultations in primary care for symptoms of urinary tract infections (UTIs) are common and patients are frequently treated with antibiotics. Given increasing antimicrobial resistance, there has been interest in non-antibiotic treatment options for common infections. One such option is the use of cranberry extract to treat symptoms attributable to UTIs. Methods: A target of 45 women consulting in primary care, with symptoms suggestive of an uncomplicated UTI for whom the practitioner would normally prescribe antibiotics, will be randomised to receive one of three treatment approaches: (1) immediate prescription for antibiotics; (2) immediate prescription for antibiotics plus a 7-day course of cranberry capsules and (3) cranberry capsules plus a delayed prescription for antibiotics to be used in case their symptoms do not get better, or get worse. Follow-up will be by daily rating of symptoms and recording of treatments used for 2 weeks in an online symptom diary. Interviews will be conducted with around 10–15 study participants, as well as with around 10–15 women who have experienced a UTI but have not been approached to take part in the study. Both groups will be asked about their experience of having a UTI, their thoughts on non-antibiotic treatments for UTIs and their thoughts on, or experience of, the feasibility trial. The primary objective is to assess the feasibility of undertaking a full trial in primary care of the effectiveness of cranberry extract to reduce antibiotic use for symptoms of acute uncomplicated UTI. The secondary objective is to conduct a preliminary assessment of the extent to which cranberry might reduce antibiotic use and symptom burden. Discussion: This feasibility study with embedded interviews will inform the planning and sample size calculation of an adequately powered trial to definitively determine whether cranberry helps to alleviate the symptoms of acute uncomplicated UTIs in women and whether it can safely reduce antibiotic use.
How we learnt to stop worrying and love web scraping
Career Column: For Nicholas DeVito, Georgia Richards and Peter Inglesby, custom webscrapers have driven their research — and their collaborations. In research, time and resources are precious. Automating common tasks, such as data collection, can make a project efficient and repeatable, leading in turn to increased productivity and output. You will end up with a shareble and reproducible method for data collection that can be verified, used and expanded on by others — in other words, a computationally reproducible data-collection workflow. In a current project, we are analysing coroners’ reports to help to prevent future deaths. It has required downloading more than 3,000 PDFs to search for opioid-related deaths, a huge data-collection task. In discussion with the larger team, we decided that this task was a good candidate for automation. With a few days of work, we were able to write a computer program that could quickly, efficiently and reproducibly collect all the PDFs and create a spreadsheet that documented each case.
Impact of a national primary care pay-for-performance scheme on ambulatory care sensitive hospital admissions: a small-area analysis in England
Objective: We aimed to spatially describe hospital admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSC) in England at small-area geographical level and assess whether recorded practice performance under one of the world’s largest primary care pay-for-performance schemes led to reductions in these potentially avoidable hospitalisations for chronic conditions incentivised in the scheme. Setting: We obtained numbers of ACSC hospital admissions from the Hospital Episode Statistics database and information on recorded practice performance from the Quality and Outcomes: Framework (QOF) administrative dataset for 2015/2016. We fitted three sets of negative binomial models to examine ecological associations between incentivised ACSC admissions, general practice performance, deprivation, urbanity and other sociodemographic characteristics. Results: Hospital admissions for QOF incentivised ACSCs varied within and between regions, with clusters of high numbers of hospital admissions for incentivised ACSCs identified across England. Our models indicated a very small effect of the QOF on reducing admissions for incentivised ACSCs (0.993, 95% CI 0.990 to 0.995), however, other factors, such as deprivation (1.021, 95% CI 1.020 to 1.021) and urbanicity (0.875, 95% CI 0.862 to 0.887), were far more important in explaining variations in admissions for ACSCs. People in deprived areas had a higher risk of being admitted in hospital for an incentivised ACSC condition. Conclusion: Spatial analysis based on routinely collected data can be used to identify areas with high rates of potentially avoidable hospital admissions, providing valuable information for targeting resources and evaluating public health interventions. Our findings suggest that the QOF had a very small effect on reducing avoidable hospitalisation for incentivised conditions. Material deprivation and urbanicity were the strongest predictors of the variation in ACSC rates for all QOF incentivised conditions across England.
GPs’ decisions about prescribing end-of-life anticipatory medications: a qualitative study
Background: GPs have a central role in decisions about prescribing anticipatory medications to help control symptoms at the end of life. Little is known about GPs’ decision-making processes in prescribing anticipatory medications, how they discuss this with patients and families, or the subsequent use of prescribed drugs. Aim: To explore GPs’ decision-making processes in the prescribing and use of anticipatory medications for patients at the end of life. Design and setting: A qualitative interview study with GPs working in one English county. Method: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 13 GPs. Interview transcripts were analysed inductively using thematic analysis. Results: Three themes were constructed from the data: something we can do, getting the timing right, and delegating care while retaining responsibility. Anticipatory medications were a tangible intervention GPs felt they could offer patients approaching death (something we can do). The prescribing of anticipatory medications was recognised as a harbinger of death for patients and their families. Nevertheless, GPs preferred to discuss and prescribe anticipatory medications weeks before death was expected whenever possible (getting the timing right). After prescribing medications, GPs relied on nurses to assess when to administer drugs and keep them updated about their use (delegating care while retaining responsibility). Conclusion: GPs view anticipatory medications as key to symptom management for patients at the end of life. The drugs are often presented as a clinical recommendation to ensure patients and families accept the prescription. GPs need regular access to nurses and rely on their skills to administer drugs appropriately. Patients’ and families’ experiences of anticipatory medications, and their preferences for involvement in decision making, warrant urgent investigation.
The content and conduct of GP consultations for dermatology problems: a cross-sectional study
Background: Skin complaints are common in primary care, and poor outcomes in long-term conditions are often due to low adherence to treatment. Shared decision making and self-management support may help, yet there is little understanding of patient involvement or the support provided by GPs. Aim: To describe the content of primary care consultations for skin problems, including shared decision making practice, delivery of self-management advice, and follow-up. Design and setting: Cross-sectional study of video-recorded UK adult GP consultations and linked data. Method: A coding tool was developed and applied to all consultations with skin problems. Shared decision making was assessed using the observer OPTION5 scale. Results: A total of 45/318 consultations (14.2%) related to one or more skin problems, which were discussed alongside other problems in 71.1% (32/45) of consultations. Of the 100 different problems discussed in these consultations, 51 were dermatological. The mean amount of time spent on skin problems in the consultations was 4 minutes 16 seconds. Medication was recommended for 66.7% (34/51) of skin problems, with low shared decision making (mean OPTION5 score = 10.7). Self-management advice (verbal only) was given for 47.1% (24/51) of skin problems. Most skin problems (84.3%; 43/51) were not referred to secondary care; 32.6% (14/43) of the skin problems not referred were seen again in primary care within 12 weeks, of which 35.7% (5/14) follow-up appointments were not planned. Conclusion: In this study, skin problems were usually presented alongside other complaints and resulted in a medication recommendation. Shared decision making was uncommon and self-management advice not consistently given, with re-attendance for the same problem common. GPs’ training should reflect how frequently skin problems are seen and seek to improve patient involvement in decision making and support self-management.
Predicting major adverse cardiovascular events for secondary prevention: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis of risk prediction models.
Introduction Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally. With advances in early diagnosis and treatment of CVD and increasing life expectancy, more people are surviving initial CVD events. However, models for stratifying disease severity risk in patients with established CVD for effective secondary prevention strategies are inadequate. Multivariable prognostic models to stratify CVD risk may allow personalised treatment interventions. This review aims to systematically review the existing multivariable prognostic models for the recurrence of CVD or major adverse cardiovascular events in adults with established CVD diagnosis. Methods and analysis Bibliographic databases (Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO and Web of Science) will be searched, from database inception to April 2020, using terms relating to the clinical area and prognosis. A hand search of the reference lists of included studies will also be done to identify additional published studies. No restrictions on language of publications will be applied. Eligible studies present multivariable models (derived or validated) of adults (aged 16 years and over) with an established diagnosis of CVD, reporting at least one of the components of the primary outcome of major adverse cardiovascular events (defined as either coronary heart disease, stroke, peripheral artery disease, heart failure or CVD-related mortality). Reviewing will be done by two reviewers independently using the pre-defined criteria. Data will be extracted for included full-text articles. Risk of bias will be assessed using the Prediction model study Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). Prognostic models will be summarised narratively. If a model is tested in multiple validation studies, the predictive performance will be summarised using a random-effects meta-analysis model to account for any between-study heterogeneity. Ethics and dissemination Ethics approval is not required. The results of this study will be submitted to relevant conferences for presentation and a peer-reviewed journal for publication.
Self-management interventions to reduce healthcare use and improve quality of life among patients with asthma: systematic review and network meta-analysis
Objective: To compare the different self-management models (multidisciplinary case management, regularly supported self-management, and minimally supported self-management) and self-monitoring models against usual care and education to determine which are most effective at reducing healthcare use and improving quality of life in asthma. Design: Systematic review and network meta-analysis. Data sources: Medline, the Cochrane Library, CINAHL, EconLit, Embase, Health Economics Evaluations Database, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, PsycINFO, and ClinicalTrials.gov from January 2000 to April 2019. Review methods: Randomised controlled trials involving the different self-management models for asthma were included. The primary outcomes were healthcare use (hospital admission or emergency visit) and quality of life. Summary standardised mean differences (SMDs) and 95% credible intervals were estimated using bayesian network meta-analysis with random effects. Heterogeneity and publication bias were assessed. Results: From 1178 citations, 105 trials comprising 27 767 participants were included. In terms of healthcare use, both multidisciplinary case management (SMD –0.18, 95% credible interval −0.32 to −0.05) and regularly supported self-management (–0.30, −0.46 to −0.15) were significantly better than usual care. For quality of life, only regularly supported self-management (SMD 0.54, 0.11 to 0.96) showed a statistically significant benefit compared with usual care. For trials including adolescents/children (age 5-18 years), only regularly supported self-management showed statistically significant benefits (healthcare use: SMD –0.21, −0.40 to −0.03; quality of life: 0.23, 0.03 to 0.48). Multidisciplinary case management (SMD –0.32, −0.50 to −0.16) and regularly supported self-management (–0.32, −0.53 to −0.11) were most effective at reducing healthcare use in patients with symptoms of severe asthma at baseline. Conclusions: This network meta-analysis indicates that regularly supported self-management reduces the use of healthcare resources and improves quality of life across all levels of asthma severity. Future healthcare investments should provide support that offer reviews totalling at least two hours to establish self-management skills, reserving multidisciplinary case management for patients with complex disease.
Associations of the systolic and diastolic components of orthostatic hypotension with markers of cardiovascular risk in older men: A cross‐sectional analysis from The British Regional Heart Study
The mechanisms underlying the association between orthostatic hypotension (OH) and cardiovascular disease are unclear. We investigated whether OH is associated with circulating cardiovascular risk markers. This was a cross‐sectional analysis of 3857 older, community‐dwelling men. “Consensus OH” was defined as a sitting‐to‐standing decrease in systolic blood pressure ≥20 mm Hg and/or diastolic blood pressure ≥10 mm Hg that occurred within three minutes of standing. Multiple generalized linear regression and logistic models were used to examine the association between cardiovascular risk markers and OH. Consensus OH was present in 20.2%, consisting of isolated systolic OH in 12.6%, isolated diastolic OH in 4.6%, and combined systolic and diastolic OH in 3.0%. Concentration of von Willebrand factor, a marker of endothelial dysfunction, was positively associated with isolated systolic OH (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.05‐1.73) and combined systolic and diastolic OH (OR 2.27, 95% CI 1.35‐3.83); high circulating phosphate concentration, which may reflect vascular calcification, was associated with isolated diastolic OH (OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.04‐2.25) and combined systolic and diastolic OH (OR 2.12, 95% CI 1.31‐3.44), high‐sensitivity troponin T, a marker of myocardial injury, was positively associated with isolated diastolic OH (OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.07‐2.65) and N‐terminal pro‐brain natriuretic peptide, a marker of cardiac stress, was positively associated with combined systolic and diastolic OH (OR 2.14, 95% CI 1.14‐4.03). In conclusion, OH is associated with some cardiovascular risk markers implicated in endothelial dysfunction, vascular calcification, myocardial injury, and cardiac stress. Clinicians should consider assessing cardiovascular risk in patients with OH.