Pradeep Virdee

Award title: NIHR SPCR Post-doctoral fellowship

Project Title: Full BLOOD count TRends for colorectal cAnCer deteCtion (BLOODTRACC): external validation of dynamic clinical prediction models for early detection of colorectal cancer in primary care

Brief Summary: Colorectal cancer is a common type of cancer in the UK. Survival is heavily influenced by tumour stage at diagnosis: five-year survival is 93% if diagnosed at Stage 1 and 10% if at Stage 4. Earlier detection is crucial to improve likelihood of successful treatment and reduce mortality. The full blood count (FBC) is a common blood test performed in primary care and may help. Relevant trends in repeated FBCs related could identify undiagnosed colorectal cancer. I developed dynamic prediction models utilising these trends to flag high risk colorectal cancer patients (the BLOODTRACC models). I aim to test and update the BLOODTRACC models in this fellowship, using data on around 28 million primary care patients from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and linked national cancer registration, death registration, and secondary care data. This fellowship will assess whether acting on trends in blood tests could lead to colorectal cancer diagnosis at an earlier stage and improve survival rates. Future work includes expanding the BLOODTRACC models to detect other cancers in primary care.

Start date: 1 January 2024

End date:  31 December 2025